Leonardo is a network of intellectually sophisticated bloggers and vloggers that will have explosive growth in their audience due to reciprocal virality.
The Polymath will be a weekly pdf magazine publishing intellectually sophisticated analysis and commentary with articles coming from the Leonardo network.Our Vision:
For a short time, while understanding that some bias is unavoidable, the major news outlets, what is sometimes referred to as 'The Mainstream Media' (MSM), made an honest effort to present the news with as little political and/or ideological bias as possible. But sometime during the Vietnam War, the MSM started drifting leftward and, by the Clinton Presidency, academic research was finding a strong Liberal bias in the news and the Conservatives noticed. With the advent of cable, which defused the 'Fairness Doctrine', Fox News emerged claiming to present the news in a 'Fair and Balanced' manner. Of course, from the beginning a Conservative bias was discernible and, over time, it became more pronounced. Since then, a broader conservative press has emerged in an effort to balance the liberal MSM.
Today, all pretense of objectivity is gone. The MSM, especially MSNBC and the Washington Post, are more or less unrelenting liberal propaganda and an excoriation of Conservatives and their values. CNN, The New York Times, NBC, CBS, ABC and PBS are not far behind. Fox News has also abandoned any pretense of impartiality and routinely refers to the Republican Party as 'we'. A breaking point was reached, however, with the election of Donald Trump. Now, the News media, both the Right and the Left, are quite overtly and knowingly lying with the purpose of promoting the narrative of their side. Even some schools of Journalism are teaching 'outcome based' reporting in which unbalanced reportage is celebrated because of the 'social good' can do.
'Our liberty depends on the freedom of the press and that cannot be limited without it being lost. - T. Jefferson'
This, and similar quottions, have been referenced as refutation when President Trump calls the press the 'enemy of the people'. That seems reasonable if one does not dig deeper. Jefferson believed this quote because he believed that democracy can only work when there is a well informed electorate. Then what are we to think when the press misinforms the electorate? Enemy of the people is not an outlandish conclusion. On both sides, they are lying because they believe that winning is more important than telling the truth. The quote, 'The first casualty of war is the truth' is particularly apropos.
To be fair, Jefferson's vision of an objective press that would inform the electorate and indemnify the democratic process from prevarication has not been the norm in the U.S. and Europe has only been slightly better. In fact, the line between party and press has been muddy for most of modern Western history. However, during most of that time Western civilization was predominately governed by major parties that disagreed on political, but not cultural or moral, issues.
The fact is that EuroAmerica is currently embroiled in a cultural war that, as well as other venues, is being fought on a political battleground. But, what are the non-combatants, i.e. the moderates, to do? As I say, (left wing nut+right wing nut)/2 almost never results in a cogent and defensible position. Without asserting that it doesn't exist at all, the world sorely needs a cogent and objective source of analysis and commentary. To that end, I am encouraging the formation of Leonardo and The Polymath.
According to Pew Research, between 1994 and 2014 the number of moderates in America has decreased from 49% to 39% and they were not replaced by soft partisans but actually by hard partisans. Pew also found that hard partisans are far more politically engaged than moderates. Pew has also found that since 2016 the antipathy that the Republicans and Democrats feel toward each other has become severe.
The hard turn toward partisan reporting in the major news outlets has likely been a response to a more than doubling of highly partisan Americans. As the lines harden and the partisan Americans begin to live entirely within their news source echo chamber, outright lying becomes more economically attractive. A lie on one side may be convincingly refuted on the other, but the liar can rest assured that his or her audience will never learn of the refutation.
The culture war is not raging as much in Europe. However, because the U.S. tends to lead on cultural issues, that may change over time. Also, Europe is experiencing an emerging regionalism that, in many cases, is causing biased reporting. Examples are Catalonia in Spain, Scotland in the U.K. and, in Eastern Europe, Transnistria, Crimea and the Donbas. While muted by comparison, the European press has demonstrated marked bias when reporting on these issues.
Bias, however, is only half of the problem that is spawning Leonardo and The Polymath. The other is a strong bias toward simplistic reporting when, in fact, the major issues of EuroAmerica are complexifying. The reason for this is primarily driven by the 'Simonton Gap' of persuasiveness. Psychologist D.K. Simonton found that speakers are most convincing when their audience has an IQ about 1.2 sigma (standard deviation) below their own. If a speaker or author has an IQ less than that, the audience tends to find flaws in the presentation. If his or her IQ is more than that, the audience will miss important aspects of the presentation.
As I discuss in The Inappropriately Excluded, the intellectual elites in EuroAmerica tend to have IQs that center around 126. This means that the audiences have IQs that center around 108. Since University graduates, depending upon the cited study, have IQs between 112 and 115, we would expect that analysis and commentary intended for them would have authors with an average IQ of between 130 and 133. What we see is that people with IQs over about 126, or smarter than the average elite member, will not have proper sources of analysis and commentary.
To this end, Leonardo and The Polymath will recruit and enable writers with IQs that center around 148, writing analysis and commentary for an audience that centers around 130. These writers currently have almost no proper vehicles for publication. It is very important to recognize that IQ is being used as a first filter in selecting Leonardos, not because it is the best measure, but because it is well researched. Both writers and readers will come from the most intellectually sophisticated which, while difficult to measure and poorly researched is the best measure.
There are about 1.2 billion adults in EuroAmerica. The top 5% of the population in IQ would be about 60 million. However, as we stated earlier, about 40% of them are not at all unbiased and, as such, fail on the intellectual sophistication. That means that, assuming the market for Leonardo and The Polymath are these people, the total market is about 36 million. In today's highly fragmented media markets, that is very large.
Generally, one would expect the market leader to garner about a 20% market share, or about 7.2 million. This appears paltry compared to, say, The Washington Post which attracts nearly 90 million unique visitors per month. However, the Washington Post appeals to a general audience. The Economist online is a more comparable publication and it last reported monthly unique visitors of 10.2 million. This would be an appropriate mature market estimate for The Polymath. One would expect that Leonardo, as a network of blogs and vlogs might get somewhat more, likely between 15 million and 20 million.
Leonardo:
Leonardo is a network of intellectually sophisticated blogs and vlogs specifically designed to grow explosively through a system of intentional virality. Ultimately, we anticipate about 300 members. We expect that Leonardo members will typically earn six figure income for a part-time commitment. A few of the most successful may achieve seven figure income.
A moderately successful blogger may average 50K views per article. With 8 page weekly articles with an $8CPM ad on each page, the blogger will earn 50X8X8=$3,200 per week or $166,400. Two or three dozen of the most successful bloggers may acquire 500K views per article and earn $1,664,000.
Obviously, the central requirement for becoming a successful blogger is the ability to write well to your identified audience. Many people simply don't have that much original to say. However, if, like me, you dedicate yourself every day to reading, thinking and writing, you quite likely will not find this an impediment. Writing well is primarily a learned skill.
Beyond that, the two biggest impediments are acquiring readers and turning them into income.
Monetization is the lesser problem, however, it is still a problem that needs to be solved. The primary sources that obviously exist for bloggers are Google Adsense and Amazon affiliate ads. The problem is that they both aren't very good. Google Adsense has two problems. First, its algorithms for matching subject matter to ads is not very good and the more intellectually sophisticated the blog the worse it is. Second, it takes 55% of the ad revenue. So, even if one gets $10 CPM, the blogger will only get $4.5 of that. By the way, it takes the same amount from its Youtubers.
With Amazon, the blogger matches ad to reader. Even though that is good, on the surface, the 4% commission is an insult. If a writer self-publishes an e-book on Amazon, they will get 70% of the revenue. That means that Amazon gives 70% for the product and gives 4% to the seller, retaining 26%, essentially for order processing. That is, in fact, insulting to both the author and seller.
Suppose a blogger places an ad to a related book. He or she will earn $0.40 per sale. In order to achieve $8.00 per thousand, a sales rate of 2% is required (assuming it is a $10 e-book. That sounds easy, but it is not. It is essentially impossible. However, if a writer sells their own $10 e-book, with a 5% overhead, he or she will only need a sales rate of 0.08%. That is possible.
If the writer has an average of an 8 page article, that will likely take care of one of the pages. However, he or she will still need 7 more ads. So, one of the responsibilities of the Leonardo administrative services is to provide an advertising venue. Each Leonardo blogger/vlogger will provide a link for their readers to advertise within the network. Administrative services will also promote other outlets. The standard advertising will be around $10CPM of which the Administrative Services will take $2CPM or 20%. This is a vast improvement over the 55% that Youtube and Adsense takes.
The second and actually more difficult problem is getting sufficient readers. I get about 2X my subscriber list in article views. Right now, I have 1, 575 subscribers, but I get about 3,200 views per article. That is because of social media promotion, sharing and SEO. At this level, income is about 3.2X64=204.8USD per week. That is hardly impressive. However, I have created a method by which to grow that very quickly. It is based upon newsletter subscriptions that force high level virality.
Each Leonardo will publish a weekly newsletter that will contain a short message, one advertisement and five abstracts and links to articles. The first article will generally be theirs and the other four will be articles selected from their subscriptions to other Leonardos. In other words, if, over time, a Leonardo subscribes to four other Leonardo newsletters, they will receive 20 articles and they will choose the four that they consider the most appealing to their subscribers.
This makes a subscription far more valuable to the subscriber than a subscription where the subscriber only receives the one article per week. This will tend to increase the subscription rate and the open rate, thus increasing income substantially. However, the largest benefit is on the reciprocal virality. It substantially increases readers and subscription rate. The latter is very important because it results in exponential growth.
For example, I typically get new subscribers at the rate of 1% of views. So, for example, this implies a growth of about 67.8% per year. So, if a Leonardo starts with 1,000 subscribers, they will have 1,678 subscribers at the end of year one, 2,816 at the end of year two, 4,728 at the end of year three, etc. Clearly, it will take many years before the blogger will get to substantial readership.
However, if a Leonardo is getting readers from four Leonardos who reprint their articles, the change is dramatic. A typical article that is sent to 1,000 subscribers will likely get about 2,000 views because their subscribers share and foreward the articles. If four other leonardos reprint the articles, they may instead get 8,000 views. With a 1% subscription rate, they will get 80 subscriptions instead of 20, for a growth rate of 4%.
4% grows exponentially faster. At this growth rate 1,000 subscribers becomes 7,687 after year one, 59,090 after year two and 454,225 after year three. 59,090 subscribers with the reciprocal virality will result in 236,360 readers. This translates to an annual income of about 786,606USD. With Leonardo that is achievable in two years. Without Leonardo it will require about 43 years! So, the Leonardo strategy turns the impossible into the possible.
If this sounds attractive to you and upon reflection you believe you have the intellectual sophistication and drive to execute the Leonardo plan, you will be placed in a secret Facebook group. You will create a blog and set up an e-mail list for subscriptions and to send out your newsletter. The general assumption is that you will generate 1,000 subscribers from your social media contacts. This can be done entirely with 'sweat equity' or you can grow faster using social media advertising.
The Polymath:
The Polymath will be a weekly pdf magazine of intellectually sophisticated analysis and commentary. Currently, its major competition is probably The Economist online. However, unlike The Economist, it is supported entirely by advertising and strives for an overall nonpartisan presentation. Authors will come, primarily, from the ranks of Leonardos.
We are engaged in an ongoing crowdfunding effort to create and promote Leonardo and The Polymath. It is a hybrid reward/equity crowdfunding which means that we will strive to see tangible and substantial rewards accrue to our contributors.
Reward contributors will receive one prepaid ad for every $50 that they contribute and when we qualify to offer equity crowdfunding, the prepaid ads will be converted to equity shares in Polymathica Media Corporation.
Our three year circulation goal for The Polymath is 4.2 million. This is from a target audience of 60 million within Europe and the Americas who comprise the upper 5% of the population in Intellectual Sophistication. Since The Polymath will be free and totally ad supported, we believe that this is achievable within three years of launch. Our goal is to average advertising revenue of $10 CPM, with one (1/12 page) ad per page and 96 pages per week. Currently, Facebook has a CPM of $7.84, but that is increasing quickly. Also, generally, more targeted ads command a higher CPM, at times as high as $60. We will likely command at least $10 CPM because our readers will be more affluent and much more inclined to be thought leaders. Also, we believe that the quality of the impression will be superior to Facebook.
A more appropriate, though smaller, example might be the Dick Morris Newsletter that charges $10 CPM. The Economist Online, what we consider to be our closest competitor charges the equivalent of a $3,300 for a 1/4 page ad. However, though we know that they get about 1.6 million page views per month, we do not know how many views they get per page. However, reasonable assumptions result in CPMs well over $10. Consequently, we do not think that our CPM goal is overly aggressive.
These circulation and advertising rate assumptions translate to a total ad revenue of just over $200 million per year. Our profit goal is 25% for a projected profit of $50 million per year or an EPS of $500 per prepaid ad. At an EPS of 25:1 (slightly below the current average), the $50 reward will be worth $12,500. This is consistent with the very highest returns for those who have invested in start-ups. Of course, start-ups are high risk, high reward ventures and success cannot be guaranteed.
We are intending to have no fixed costs with all expense categories budgeted as a percent of ad revenue. Our writers will receive 45% of the estimated 4,200 X $10
While we believe that The Polymath's success should be generously shared with those who supported it from the beginning, financial gain is not the primary reason I am doing this. While I would never tell anyone to ignore honestly earned returns, it will likely not be, for those who support the crowdfunding, the primary motivation. I have two major reasons for doing this. The first is, simply, Leonardo and The Polymath will provide an opportunity that will be rewarding opportunity, both intellectually and financially, for about 300-500 members of the Inappropriately Excluded. However, the second reason is the most important; The Polymath is deperately needed in the News Media.
The articles I have published or will publish over the next few weeks are intended to be representative of articles one will find in The Polymath. They include:
- The Inappropriately Excluded. This article discusses the negative correlation between IQ and likelihood of entering and remaining in the intellectually elite professions.
- Sorting Out Technological Unemployment. This article discusses how the tsunami of advanced robotics and AI that is about to descend on the job market (driverless cars, Dr. Watson, etc) is going to cause challenges to unemployment but over time will lead to explosive income growth.
- Medicare Advantage for All. A healthcare system superior to the current system, ACA (Obamacare) or socialized medicine has already been invented in Medicare Advantage. With proper exposure, it will become the new system, not just in the U.S. but Canada, Europe and Australia, as well.
- The Coming Population Bust. In 1974 Paul Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb, in which he predicted a overpopulation apocalypse that never happened. However, now, due to a collapse in fertility rates, Sometime between 2070 and 2120, world population will start falling precipitously. The U.N. has been using questionable to push this population bust beyond their horizon of 2100. Still, it is coming.
- P2P Social Media Will Kill the Tech Giants. Facebook, Twitter, Linked In, Instagram, etc. was the social media solution at first because independent individual social media accounts were both technically and economically unfeasible. That is no longer the case and some rather simple software, when developed and marketing, can and, most likely, will put an end to the social media tech giants.
- Monaco is Just the Beginning. Monaco is a subtropical playground for the wealthy with the added benefits of being a tax have. Dubai has become a similar playground. However, as the income explosion creates an explosion of ultra-wealthy households, these tax free playgrounds for the wealthy will also explode.
- Living 100 Years Is Now Normal. Recently, a study was published that found the average life expectancy of a person who was 50 in 1972 and was in the upper 40% in income was 88.3 years. However, for decades that life expectancy has been increasing at the rate of .227 years per year. That means that the life expectancy of someone who is 50 today and in the upper 40%, is 88.3+(47X.227)=99years. This is not based on 'pie in the sky' anti-aging breakthroughs, but rather just extending normal trends. That will change everything.
- A Supportable National Debt. When the National Debt is being discussed accross EuroAmerica, the conversation usually revolves around one group who wants a prudent use of debt and those who believe that national budgets should be balanced. We know that the prudent use of debt increases for a family or a business when income and net worth increase, so, on the surface, the first group seems to be correct. But, for a government, what constitutes a prudent debt load. There are sound principles of finance to answer the question.
- Simulated Artificial Intelligence is Imminent. With the Transhumanist and Singularity movements going strong, many of the 'techies' today talk about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), predicting that there will be AGI systems by 2050 that are unambiguouosly super-human. They are probably correct that they are technologically feasible. However, they would make a bad product and, consequently, will remain a laboratory curiosity. However, simulated artificial intelligence is emerging today and it will be very successful, perhaps, by 2050, being the single largest industry on the planet.
We have the opportunity to disrupt the narratives of both the Left and the Right and replace it with objective, sophisticated commentary and analysis. But it will need your support. Otherwise we can expect more of the same.
No comments:
Post a Comment